Parkinson Hastalığının Küresel ve Bölgesel Desenleri: Geçici Eğilimler, Eşitsizlik Açıları ve 2040'a Yönelik Projeksiyonlar

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Background Among the neurological disorders Parkinson deasease (PD) has emerged as one of the rapidly growing disorder, worldwide. This study is aimed to analyse the global, regional and national burden and trends of PD from 1990-2023, across the genders, age groups and sociodemographic context and forecasts of global trends through 2040. Methods For this study the data were sourced from the publically available most recent Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 1990-2023. The trends in age-standardized rates for key metrices including disability-adjusted life years (ASDR), mortality (ASMR), incidence (ASIR), and prevalence (ASPR) were analysed. Temporal trends were evaluated using estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). Associations with the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) were explored using LOWESS regression. Future burden (2024–2040) was projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Results Globally, the ASDR increased from 77.71 to 88.62 per 100,000, ASMR from 4.27 to 4.85, ASIR from 11.92 to 15.11, and ASPR from 93.76 to 128.46. In 2023, PD accounted for 11.67 million cases and 0.42 million deaths. The greatest DALY increases occurred in low-middle SDI regions (33.23%), while high-middle SDI regions showed mild declines, which was also endorsed by LOWESS analysis. Regionally, the highest ASDR growth occurred in High-income North America (EAPC = 1.54%) and Central Sub-Saharan Africa (EAPC = 1.04%), whereas East Asia and Oceania showed declines. Prevalence rose most in North Africa and the Middle East (+97.74%; EAPC = 2.00). Nationally, the burden reduced in Kuwait and Qatar but rose sharply in Maldives and Ethiopia. PD burden increased exponentially with age and was consistently higher among males. Forecasts suggest continued global increases by 2040. Conclusions From 1990 to 2023, PD burden rose substantially worldwide, with the steepest increases in low- and middle-SDI regions. Despite stabilization in high-income areas, the global burden is projected to rise through 2040, underscoring the need for enhanced prevention, early diagnosis, and equitable access to long-term care.

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