Depressive symptoms predict incident chronic disease burden 10 years later: Findings from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA).

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ObjectiveTo assess the association between depressive symptoms and incident chronic illness burden in prospective longitudinal analyses.MethodsWe analysed data from 2472 participants (62.88 ± 8.49 years old; 50.8% female) from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). Depressive symptoms were measured using the Centre for Epidemiological Studies Depression (CES-D) scale at baseline in 2004, and participants were followed up for 10 years. Participants with prevalent illness at baseline (coronary heart disease [CHD], other cardiac illness, stroke, cancer, diabetes/high blood glucose, arthritis, lung disease, osteoporosis and Parkinson's disease) were excluded from models predicting illness burden (the sum of illnesses reported) over follow-up. Linear regression was used controlling for a wide range of covariates.ResultsThe mean chronic illness burden was 0.57, with 43.1% experiencing at least one incident physical illness. Baseline continuous CES-D score was a significant predictor of incident chronic illness burden up to 10 years later (incident rate ratio = 1.05, 95% confidence intervals = 0.05-0.21, p = .003), independent of sociodemographic, behavioural, cognitive and clinical covariates. Sensitivity analyses excluding participants who developed a chronic illness within the 2 years following baseline corroborated the main results.ConclusionDepressive symptoms were associated with greater incident chronic illness burden 10 years later. These findings have clinical implications for the treatment of depression in physically healthy older adults.

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