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ABSTRACT Objective To develop and externally validate models to predict probabilities of alpha-synuclein (a-syn) positive or negative status in vivo in a mixture of people with and without Parkinson’s disease (PD) using easily accessible clinical predictors. Methods Uni- and multi-variable logistic regression models were developed in a cohort of participants from the Parkinson Progression Marker Initiative (PPMI) study to predict cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) a-syn status as measured by seeding amplification assay (SAA). Models were externally validated in a cohort of participants from the Systemic Synuclein Sampling Study (S4) that had also measured CSF a-syn status using SAA. Results The PPMI model training/testing cohort consisted of 1260 participants, of which 76% had manifest PD with a mean (± standard deviation) disease duration of 1.2 (±1.6) years. Overall, 68.7% of the overall PPMI cohort (and 88.0% with PD of those with manifest PD) had positive CSF a-syn SAA status results. Variables from the full multivariable model to predict CSF a-syn SAA status included age- and sex-specific University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test (UPSIT) percentile values, sex, self-reported presence of constipation problems, leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 ( LRRK2 ) genetic status and pathogenic variant, and GBA status. Internal performance of the model on PPMI data to predict CSF a-syn SAA status had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.920, and sensitivity/specificity of 0.881/0.845. When this model was applied to the external S4 cohort, which included 71 participants (70.4% with manifest PD for a mean 5.1 (±4.8) years), it performed well, achieving an AUROC of 0.976, and sensitivity/specificity of 0.958/0.870. Models using only UPSIT percentile performed similarly well upon internal and external testing. Conclusion Data-driven models using non-invasive clinical features can accurately predict CSF a-syn SAA positive and negative status in cohorts enriched for people living with PD. Scores from the UPSIT were highly significant in predicting a-syn SAA status.
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